Resources > No Good Deed Unpunished
No Good Deed Unpunished
Mark Galeotti & Chris Honeyman
This hypothetical scenario presents a multiplayer situation, around the proposal of the European Union to site a nuclear power plant in Bosnia and Herzegovina. Rivalry over where it should be located, and what prime contractor is to be dominant, and therefore what country since all the possible contractors are closely associated with major powers, has resulted already in a possible shift of location and a three-way contest over the relative influence of the US, Europe, and Russia in the project – with China never far away as a further influencer. Tensions are further inflamed by the apparent murder (though a simple accident cannot be ruled out) of the European Commission official assigned to investigate the merits of the competing locations and make a final recommendation. This case study serves to present the classic hybrid warfare problem of attribution, in which it is distinctly unclear who is responsible – if indeed a murder has occurred. That lack of clarity allows multiple parties to construct and promulgate narratives claiming each in turn is victim rather than perpetrator. It also situates the immediate conflict within a known history of extreme and longstanding conflict which has frequently been exacerbated by the ambitions of individual politicians. Finally, this scenario presents a clear example of a real-world problem for all such cases, in which events may rapidly overtake a case designed even recently. This case study deals with that situation by asking readers to mentally place themselves within a specific time in history (circa 2019), as well as within a particular place.
Additional teaching notes and materials available on Mitchell Hamline Open Access.